The Russia-Ukraine War Probably Isn't Going To End In A Nuclear Apocalypse; Now What?

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A Dangerous Precedent for the U.S.

As the war in Ukraine drags on, the global narrative surrounding Russia is beginning to shift. What was once a pariah state is now creeping back toward cautious acceptance, not because of any fundamental change in its behavior but simply due to fatigue and geopolitical pragmatism. The failure of the Ukraine conflict to escalate into a full-scale global war—particularly a nuclear one—has created space for a new reality: Russia, despite its aggression, can be tentatively trusted again since they did not blow up the planet. And that’s bad news for the United States.

This pattern isn’t new. The U.S. has seen it before in Afghanistan and Iraq, where initial outrage against the aggressor—whether it was the Taliban, Saddam Hussein, or later, the U.S. itself—gave way to war fatigue. Over time, the world simply wanted the conflict to end, and in doing so, began accepting the unacceptable. Now, Russia appears to be benefiting from that same phenomenon.

A Win For Russia

For Russia, this is a win. While Western sanctions and military aid to Ukraine have kept the pressure on Moscow, the lack of a nuclear escalation and the protracted nature of the war have dulled the outrage. As time passes, international actors are forced to engage with Russia on diplomatic and economic fronts, if only out of necessity. This slow normalization helps repair its reputation, making it easier for countries to justify dealing with Putin’s government.

Meanwhile, U.S. credibility continues to take a hit. A viral moment from former President George W. Bush, in which he mistakenly said “Iraq” instead of “Ukraine” while condemning Russia, exposed the hypocrisy of America’s moral posturing. The U.S. has long positioned itself as the defender of democracy, yet its own record of military interventions makes its outrage over Russia ring hollow to much of the world.

A U.S. Loss Of Reliability

Then there’s Trump. With his return to power, global allies and adversaries alike are reassessing their diplomatic strategies. The chaos and unpredictability of his leadership make the U.S. less reliable on the world stage. Meanwhile, despite the war and its internal challenges, Russia remains under Putin’s control. He hasn’t been ousted in a coup, and his grip on power remains firm. From a purely strategic standpoint—ignoring human rights and democratic values—Russia may now offer a more stable point of negotiation in global affairs than the United States.

This shift in perception carries serious consequences. The more the world tolerates Russia’s aggression in exchange for “stability,” the weaker America’s influence becomes. The lesson of Afghanistan and Iraq should have been that allowing war fatigue to dictate policy is a dangerous game. If the U.S. fails to counter Russia’s growing diplomatic rehabilitation, it risks ceding the global stage to an adversary that has already proven it will push boundaries as far as it is allowed.