Rains Soak NYC in 2025 as the US National Climate Assessment Reclassified The City to a Humid Subtropical Zone
Source: Squarespace/ Unsplash
A Subtropical Climate Zone
In 2020, the US National Climate Assessment reclassified New York City from the coastal temperate climate zone to the humid subtropical climate zone—a recognition that we now live in a place our infrastructure was never built to withstand. This shift comes with serious consequences, including a heightened risk of multiple types of flooding: flash floods from extreme rainfall, tidal flooding from rising seas, and storm surges worsened by more intense hurricanes.
A subtropical climate zone is a geographic region characterized by hot, humid summers and mild to cool winters. It's typically found between tropical and temperate zones—roughly between 23.5° and 35° latitude north and south of the equator.
In a humid subtropical climate, you can expect:
High summer temperatures with frequent humidity
Heavy rainfall, especially in summer from thunderstorms or tropical systems
Occasional extreme weather, including hurricanes or intense storms
Winters that are generally mild, though cold snaps and snow can still occur
This type of climate is common in places like the southeastern United States (e.g., Atlanta, Charlotte), parts of eastern China, and parts of South America. The shift of NYC into this zone signals that the city is now experiencing patterns of heat and precipitation more similar to those traditionally found in places much farther south, which has serious implications for infrastructure, public health, and long-term urban planning.
What Does The Future Entail?
While the reclassification occurred in 2020, NYC has seen dramatic weather events and flooding in the years since. In 2023, the city declared a state of emergency as torrential rain swept through neighborhoods, flooding subways, basements, and roadways, and once again exposing the vulnerability of the city's aging infrastructure. Streets turned into rivers, homes were inundated, and entire sections of the city came to a halt.
The future for New York City under a humid subtropical climate zone is one of increasing climate volatility. New Yorkers will see more frequent and intense heat waves, heavier and more unpredictable rainfall, worsening coastal and inland flooding, and a strain on infrastructure that was built for a cooler, more stable climate. Subways will flood more often, power grids will be under greater stress, and lower-income communities—especially those in flood-prone areas—will bear the brunt of the damage. Rising sea levels are projected to inundate portions of the city by mid-century, especially if global emissions remain high. Extreme heat will also challenge public health, especially for vulnerable populations without access to cooling.
As for whether this is reversible, mitigation can slow the trajectory, and adaptation can reduce the harm. Global temperatures have already risen enough to shift climate zones and alter long-term patterns, and those effects are now baked in for decades due to the lag in the Earth’s climate system. Reversing New York’s reclassification to a temperate zone would require sustained, global-scale emissions reductions over many decades and even then, would likely not “undo” the change so much as stabilize it.
However, we can still influence the severity of future impacts. Aggressive climate policies, like reducing fossil fuel use, building green infrastructure, elevating homes and transit systems, restoring wetlands, and implementing heat resilience programs, can make NYC more livable in the face of rising temperatures and sea levels. In other words, while the climate classification may not flip back, the city’s future can still be shaped—toward either collapse or resilience—depending on what choices are made right now.
